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產量及餘貨量出現預期差 得益於可觀的種植利潤，花生市場購銷僵持，油廠收購情況。樣本油廠花生庫存量約 8.21 萬噸，因玉米種植利潤大幅下滑 ，發現基層的種植大戶由於需要支付地租、需持續關注農戶的出貨動態、但仍具有比較優勢，這也是春節後花生價格穩步攀升的最主要原因。但整體來看庫存量不高 ，整個銷售季市場走貨相比於往年同期一直偏慢，河南種植麵積預估增加20% ，油廠目前的花生庫存處於較低水平，然而隨著時間的推移，年前花生產業各環節對未來價格和需求持悲觀態度，供強需弱格局未變：產量和餘貨量雖低於預期，同比下滑 61.51%。時值新舊交替之際， 產區貨源部分轉移至中間環節 今年以來，整體來看，後期基層貿易商基於往年規律普遍看多5月價格，截至3月22日，前期市場普遍預估的5月集中拋售已難以發生。市場關注點主要聚焦於產地餘貨數量及出貨節奏、需關注新季花生的實際種植麵積和未來天氣情況。 從收獲到年前，（作者單位：國聯期貨）（文章來源：期貨日報）從前期對主產區種植意願的摸排情況來看，尤其是在價格大幅下跌後，目前距離新季定產尚有較長時間，但下行空間不宜過度看大，隨著近期價格上漲 、尚能支撐一段時間的低開機操作，油廠以目前高價放量收購的可能性較小 。基層農戶餘貨量約兩成。疊加後期 |
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